Betting on UFC on ABC 2 Prelims

UFC-ABC-2-Preliminary

On Saturday, April 10th, the UFC will come to us live from their Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC on ABC 2 featuring a middleweight fight between Marvin Vettori and Kevin Holland. However, before we look at the main card, we must first examine the prelims.

The UFC on ABC 2 preliminary card is currently set to have nine fights with a start time of 12pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+.

This large preliminary card features many notable fighters like Jim Miller, Joe Solecki, Da Un Jung, Jack Shore, Untder Azure, Yorgan de Castro and more.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC on ABC 2 preliminary card odds, identify betting value and TKO our predictions.

As of this writing, UFC betting sites haven’t released their full slate of prop bets for this event. You can expect those props to be available as fight week progresses.

Impa Kasanganay vs Sasha Palatnikov

Impa Kasanganay (-280)
Sasha Palatnikov (+240)
Over (-375)/Under (+285) 1.5 rounds

Palatnikov is a large underdog for this weekend’s bout. It’s his second trip inside the octagon. He made his UFC debut last November and defeated Louis Cosce via 3rd round TKO. He’s on a two fight win streak.

Impa Kasanganay will fight Sasha Palatnikov at UFC event on April 10th. (per @MMAjunkie) #UFC #MMA #UFCESPN pic.twitter.com/8NyZf6pVFp

— MaRCeL DoRFF ???? (@BigMarcel24) February 25, 2021

Three of his six pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-0 when going the distance. Sasha’s two losses have come via TKO/KO.

Kasanganay was undefeated in his pro career and made two DWCS appearances before earning a UFC contract. He debuted in August 2020 and beat Maki Pitolo via unanimous decision.

Unfortunately, his second trip into the octagon didn’t go well. Impa lost via 2nd round KO to Joaquin Buckley which went viral. This is his first fight since that highlight reel knockout loss.

Two of his eight pro wins have come via submission. He’s 6-0 when going the distance.

Take this fight go the distance (-180) and Over 1.5 rounds (-375) as six of Impa’s nine pro bouts have gone the distance including four of the last five.

As for the winner, it will be Kasanganay via decision (-105) which offers the best value. He’s the better fighter and will control this bout from the opening moments until the end.

Impa Kasanganay vs Sasha Palatnikov –Kasanganay (-280)

Over 1.5 rounds (-375)

Fight goes the distance (-180)

Kasanganay wins via decision (-105)

Da Un Jung vs William Knight

Da Un Jung (-140)
William Knight (+120)
Over (-155)/Under (+135) 1.5 rounds

William Knight was supposed to fight Alonzo Menifield at UFC 260, but he was pulled from the card due to a positive covid test. Menifield would go on to fight Fabio Cherant instead.

Knight was rescheduled for this UFC on ABC 2 card since the UFC was offer for Easter weekend. He’s won three straight fights including a DWCS appearances last September and his UFC debut three weeks later.

Eight of his nine pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going the distance. His lone loss was via TKO/KO.

Jung is on a 10 fight unbeaten as he comes into this weekend’s bout. He’s 2-0-1 inside the octagon having beat Ibragimov and Rodriguez before fighting to a draw against Sam Alvey last October. Alvey is also competing at this event.

12 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-1-1 when going the distance.

This bout will go Over 1.5 rounds (-155), but finish inside the distance (-245). These two men have combined to go the distance in just four of their 26 pro contests.

I expect this contest to be filled with fireworks as we have two fighters that have combined to score 18 TKO/KO wins.

It’s a tough choice, but I am going with Jung to win. I think he’s the better all-around fighter and has never been knocked out.

The value for this contest is with each fighter’s moneyline.

Da Un Jung vs William Knight –Un Jung (-140)

Over 1.5 rounds (-155)

Fight ends inside the distance (-245)

Jung wins inside the distance (+150)

Luis Saldana vs Jordan Griffin

Luis Saldana (-140)
Jordan Griffin (+120)
Over (-220)/Under (+180) 2.5 rounds

Griffin enters this contest as the underdog having dropped three of his last four fights, which have all taken place in the UFC. He last fought in June 2020 and lost via unanimous decision to Youssef Zalal. His lone win was via 2nd round submission against T.J. Brown.

14 of his 18 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of submission. He’s 4-5 when going the distance.

Saldana is the slight favorite as he makes his UFC debut on Saturday. He earned this opportunity by winning on DWCS last November via 3rd round TKO against Vince Murdock. Luis has won four fights in a row.

All 14 of his pro wins have come via stoppage with seven apiece for submission and TKO/KO. He’s 0-3 when going the distance.

I’m taking the underdog in this contest as I believe that Griffin is the better fighter right now. He’s faced tougher competition and is more desperate having lost three of his last four. Another defeat could cause him to lose his job with the UFC.

Take this bout to go Over 2.5 rounds (-220) and for it to go the full 15 minutes (-185). I think both men will nullify the other’s strengths, which should result in the fight going the distance.

The value is with each fighter’s moneyline especially if you shop around for better odds. Saldana can be found as low as -135 and Griffin can be found as high as +125.

Luis Saldana vs Jordan Griffin –Griffin (+120)

Over 2.5 rounds (-220)

Fight goes the distance (-185)

Griffin wins via decision (+280)

Jack Shore vs Hunter Azure

Jack Shore (-150)
Hunter Azure (+130)
Over (-160)/Under (+140) 2.5 rounds

Azure comes into this weekend’s fight as the small underdog. He went 5-0 in other promotions like LFA before appearing on DWCS in July 2019 where he won via unanimous decision.

Azure followed that up with a decision win in his debut in September 2019, but suffered the first loss of his pro career in May 2020 when he lost to Brian Kelleher via 2nd round knockout. He bounced back in September 2020 with a decision win over Cole Smith.

It’s Jack ‘Tank’ Shore FIGHT WEEK!!!

Jack Shore (13-0-0) will make his third appearance inside the UFC octagon this Saturday against Hunter Azure (9-1-0) live on UFC Fight Pass from Las Vegas, USA. pic.twitter.com/HuNmyEfRep

— MMA Wales ® ??????? (@MMAWales) April 5, 2021

Four of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of TKO/KO. He’s 5-0 when going the distance.

Shore made his UFC debut in September 2019 and won via 3rd round submission over Nohelin Hernandez. His second bout was just as successful as he beat Aaron Phillips via 2nd round submission in July 2020.

12 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. He’s 1-0 when going the distance.

I like this fight. I think it’s a good matchup between some bantamweight prospects. With that in mind, I like the bout to go Under 2.5 rounds (+140) and end inside the distance (+110).

I think Shore is going to win this fight by taking Azure to the mat and scoring a submission win. He appears to have a significant advantage on the mat and should find success standing up as well.

Jack Shore vs Hunter Azure –Shore (-150)

Under 2.5 rounds (+140)

Fight ends inside the distance (+110)

Shore wins via decision (+240)

Yorgan De Castro vs Jarjis Danho

Yorgan De Castro (-300)
Jarjis Danho (+250)
Over (+100)/Under (-120) 1.5 rounds

Nicknamed “Man Mountain,” Danho is a large underdog for this weekend’s heavyweight battle. He’s also winless in his UFC tenure.

Danho debuted in February 2016 and lost. He then fought to a draw in his next bout against Christian Colombo. Danho hasn’t fought since September 2016. All five of his pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-1-1 when going the distance.

De Castro last fought in October 2020 and lost to Carlos Felipe via decision. Prior to that, he also lost to Greg Hardy via decision in May 2020. Yorgan has dropped two straight fights and is now 1-2 inside the octagon. He debuted for the promotion in the fall of 2019.

Five of his six pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 1-2 when going the distance.

De Castro is aware that another loss could put his tenure with the promotion in jeopardy:

“I’m a realistic guy. This is do or die for me. Even though people don’t believe if I lose I’ll get cut, I don’t think so. UFC treats me good. They like me but at the end the day I have to win fights. If you’re not winning, they are going to have to cut you. I feel like this is a do or die. People keep telling me that I’m just gonna have fun and do my thing. And at the end of the day, it’s a job. I’m back to Contender Series mindset. I’m going to fight for another contract.”

Combined, these two guys have gone the distance in five of their 15 pro bouts. I don’t see this fight going the distance (-350) nor do I see it even going Over 1.5 rounds (-120).

I believe De Castro will get back on track with a win over Danho. It’s hard to think that he will pull off the upset after being out of the octagon for over 4 ½ years.

De Castro’s odds of winning inside the distance at -160 offers better value than his -300 moneyline.

Yorgan De Castro vs Jarjis Danho –De Castro (-300)

Under 1.5 rounds (-120)

Fight ends inside the distance (-350)

De Castro wins inside the distance (-160)

John Makdessi vs Ignacio Bahamondes

John Makdessi (+165)
Ignacio Bahamondes (-190)
Over (-160)/Under (+140) 2.5 rounds

Makdessi is the underdog in this matchup and is looking to bounce back from a loss in his most recent outing which came 13 months ago via decision to Francisco Trinaldo. The loss snapped a three fight win streak. Makdessi is 10-7 all-time inside the octagon.

Nine of his 17 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 8-4 when going the distance.

Bahamondes earned a UFC shot after winning on DWCS last November via 2nd round knockout against Edson Gomez. Prior to that, he spent a lot of time in LFA and Combate Americas. He’s also 7-1 in his last eight fights.

Eight of his 11 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance and also has two submission losses.

I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-160) and the full 15 minutes (-140). Three of Bahamondes’ last four bouts have gone the distance. For Makdessi, 12 of his 24 pro bouts have gone the distance including six of his last seven and four in a row.

Makdessi had the following comments about his opponent:

“I’m not really thinking too much about my opponent. I’m just thinking about getting mentally and physically ready for the next challenge. I truly believe in my heart that I fought the top lightweights in the division. I fought the toughest guys and I don’t think he’s ever fought someone like me before.”

Once at the scorecards, I like Bahamondes to win this bout via decision. The 23 year old Chilean is 12 years younger than his opponent and is also the bigger fighter with a five inch height advantage and a couple inches in reach as well.

Bahamondes will outpoint Makdessi in this contest. I like the prop of the fight going the full 15 minutes as having the best value at -140 odds. It’s a wager that covers both fighters just in case Makdessi does something special on Saturday.

John Makdessi vs Ignacio Bahamondes –Bahamondes (-190)

Over 2.5 rounds (-160)

Fight goes the distance (-140)

Bahamondes wins via decision (+180)

Erin Blanchfield vs Norma Dumont

Erin Blanchfield (+200)
Norma Dumont (-240)
Over (-290)/Under (+245) 2.5 rounds

This bout was scheduled for Bea Malecki and Norma Dumont, but Malecki withdrew from the contest due to undisclosed reasons. Erin Blanchfield took this fight on a little more than one week’s notice.

Dumont is the large betting favorite and already has two UFC fights under her belt as she debuted 14 months ago and lost via 1st round KO to Megan Anderson. Norma bounced back last November with a decision win over Ashlee Evans-Smith.

B.Malecki out. Norma Dumont will now fight Erin Blanchfield at UFC event on April 10th. (per @arielhelwani) #UFC #MMA #UFCESPN #WMMA #UFCVegas23 pic.twitter.com/NgMuBdoi88

— MaRCeL DoRFF ???? (@BigMarcel24) April 1, 2021

Two of her five pro wins have come via submission. She’s 3-0 when going the distance. Her one loss came via TKO/KO.

Dumont is predicting a knockout win over Blanchfield this weekend:

“Firstly, I am very grateful that she accepted this fight at the last minute. Erin is a young, talented athlete with good experience in the fight. However, I don’t see [her having] a game plan to beat me. I believe she will try to bring me down from start to finish. But I’m betting on a knockout before the end of the second round.”

The 21 year old Blanchfield recently signed with the UFC after a solid run in Invicta FC. Her lone loss was a controversial split decision defeat to Tracy Cortez 26 months ago in Invicta FC. Erin has won three straight fights.

Three of her six pro wins have come via stoppage with two by way of TKO/KO. She’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Despite Dumont’s confidence, I don’t see this fight ending via TKO/KO. I agree with the online betting sites that it will go Over 2.5 rounds (-290) and the full distance (-245).

Four of Blanchfield’s seven pro bouts have gone to the judges while three of Dumont’s six pro fights have gone the distance. That’s a combined total of seven of their 13 pro contests going to a decision.

Once with the scorecards, I believe Blanchfield will get the win. The difference in this fight will be Erin scoring some takedowns and her time controlling the fight from the mat. The 21 year old will be successful in her octagon debut.

Erin Blanchfield vs Norma Dumont –Blanchfield (+200)

Over 2.5 rounds (-290)

Fight goes the distance (-245)

Blanchfield wins via decision (+330)

Scott Holtzman vs Mateusz Gamrot

Scott Holtzman (+190)
Mateusz Gamrot (-230)
Over (-235)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds

Holtzman has been with the UFC for nearly six years and has compiled a 7-4 record inside the octagon. He last fought in August 2020 and lost via 1st round KO to Beneil Dariush. The lost snapped a two fight win streak over Jim Miller and Dong Hyun Ma.

Seven of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 7-3 when going the distance.

Gamrot was a very successful fighter in KSW and made his UFC debut last October. Unfortunately, he came out on the wrong side of a split decision where many fans and pundits though he won. It was the first loss of his pro career.

Nine of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 8-1 when going the distance and has never been stopped in a fight.

This contest should be an entertaining one as we have two guys willing to strike and looking for the finish. I expect it go Over 2.5 rounds (-235) and the full 15 minutes (-205) as these two men have combined for 19 fights going the distance.

Once with the judges, I expect Gamrot to come away with the decision win. I believe he’s the better all-around fighter and should be able to outstrike Holtzman in this contest.

The best value for this fight is Gamrot winning via decision at +100 odds.

Scott Holtzman vs Mateusz Gamrot –Gamrot (-230)

Over 2.5 rounds (-235)

Fight goes the distance (-205)

Gamrot wins via decision (+100)

Jim Miller vs Joe Solecki

Jim Miller (+195)
Joe Solecki (-230)
Over (-150)/Under (+130) 2.5 rounds

The longtime veteran Jim Miller steps back into the octagon for the first time since last August where he lost via decision to Vinc Pichel. He was supposed to fight at UFC 258, but the bout was cancelled. Miller has fared well the last three years going 4-3 and maintaining viability in the UFC.

.@JoeSolecki “a big fan” of @JimMiller_155 but will separate that once in the Octagon at #UFConABC2 – @BobMeloni has the interview. #UFC https://t.co/P3sy5t10Sd

— Eric Kowal – MyMMANews.com (@MyMMANews) March 31, 2021

22 of his 32 pro wins have come via stoppage with 18 by way of submission. He’s 10-10 when going the distance.

For Solecki, he sees this weekend’s bout as a big step up in competition and an opportunity to show what he’s capable of:

“I’m very fortunate to be in this spot against a guy like Jim Miller, who is highly ranked and highly touted. I think it’s the perfect type of opponent to show how much I’ve grown and what I’m capable of. I think it’s going to be a grind, a very tough fight for me, so I’ve got to make sure that I stay disciplined through all three rounds. If I do that and I fight for every single position and to win each exchange, I get my hand raised.”

Solecki has won five straight fights which includes his appearance on DWCS in July 2019 and both of his UFC fights against Matt Wiman and Austin Hubbard.

Eight of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.

I see this fight going Over 2.5 rounds (-150) and the full distance (-130). Both men will nullify each other’s ground game, which leaves them in a cautious gun fight. With that said, I am taking Solecki in this contest. I believe this will be his signature win and a stepping stone to bigger fights.

Jim Miller vs Joe Solecki –Solecki (-230)

Over 2.5 rounds (-150)

Fight goes the distance (-130)

Solecki wins via decision (+130)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

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