Complete Pennzoil 400 Betting Guide

NASCAR-Pennzoil-400-Betting

On Sunday, March 7th, NASCAR heads to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400. This is the 4th race of the season and if the first three races are any indication, this weekend’s event will be an exciting one as well.

William Byron stunned the field in Miami last weekend with a big win. He marks the third consecutive race with a surprise winner. Can we keep that trend going in Las Vegas this Sunday?

According to online sports betting sites, Kevin Harvick is the odds on favorite to win the Pennzoil 400. He’s followed closely by Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski.

Let’s put our safety gear on, strap in tightly, rev those engines and make some checkered flag winning predictions.

Race Profile

The Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a traditional tri-oval track with a lap distance of 1.5 miles. There are four turns with banking from 12 to 20 degrees. Sunday’s race breaks down as follows:

Total Miles: 400.5 miles
Total Laps: 267 laps
Stage 1: First 80 laps
Stage 2: Second 80 laps
Final Stage: Remaining 107 laps

The Pennzoil 400 is set to begin at 3:30 PM ET and will air live on FOX.

High-rollin’ all weekend long at @LVMotorSpeedway. ? pic.twitter.com/oafVzDM7dd

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) March 2, 2021

What to Watch for at Las Vegas

With all of the excitement heading into the first weekend of March, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Las Vegas this weekend:

Can Team Penske win a 3rd straight Vegas race?
Will Joey Logano win his 3rd in a row at Vegas?
Can Ford win its 4th straight Las Vegas race?
Can Chevy win for the first time since 2015?
Will we get another surprise winner?

Previous Pennzoil 400 Winners

The first NASCAR Cup Series race in Las Vegas was held in 1998 and won by Mark Martin. Jimmie Johnson would go on to win this race four times, which is the all-time mark. Joey Logano has won the last two races at Las Vegas.

The following is a list of winners dating back to 1998:

Mark Martin in 1998
Jeff Burton in 1999-2000
Jeff Gordon in 2001
Sterling Marlin in 2002
Matt Kenseth in 2003-2004, 2013
Jimmie Johnson in 2005-2007, 2010
Carl Edwards in 2008, 2011
Kyle Busch in 2009
Tony Stewart in 2012
Brad Keselowski in 2014, 2016
Kevin Harvick in 2015, 2018
Martin Truex Jr. in 2017
Joey Logano in 2019, 2020

NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Kevin Harvick (+500)
Martin Truex Jr (+650)
Chase Elliott (+775)
Denny Hamlin (+775)
Brad Keselowski (+900)
Joey Logano (+900)
Kyle Larson (+1000)
Kyle Busch (+1200)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Kurt Busch (+1600)
Alex Bowman (+1800)
William Byron (+1800)
Austin Dillon (+2500)
Christopher Bell(+2800)
Aric Almirola (+4000)
Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+5000)
Tyler Reddick (+5000)
Cole Custer (+6600)
Darrell Wallace Jr (+6600)
Chase Briscoe (+8000)
Chris Buescher (+8000)
Ryan Newman (+8000)
Daniel Suarez (+10000)
Ross Chastain (+10000)
Michael McDowell (+12500)

Pennzoil 400 Betting Favorites from Vegas

According to most betting sites offering odds on NASCAR, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Pennzoil 400 from Las Vegas on Sunday, March 7th:

Driver
Wins
Top 5
Top 10
Avg Start
Avg Finish
DNF
Kevin Harvick
2
7
12
15.1
13.7
2
Martin Truex Jr
2
6
9
14.8
11.0
0
Chase Elliott
0
2
3
8.9
21.5
3
Denny Hamlin
0
3
8
15.7
13.4
1
Brad Keselowski
3
7
10
11.1
11.4
0

Kevin Harvick (+500)

Top 3 (+175)
Top 10 (-265)

Harvick has moved up one spot in the standings to 2nd overall after finishing 5th at Homestead-Miami last weekend. He’s one of only two drivers to have finished in the Top 10 for all three races this season. Harvick was 4th in the Daytona 500 and 6th at the Daytona road course.

He has yet to win a stage and has only led 17 laps this year, which is surprising considering how well he’s finished each week.

At Vegas, Harvick leads all drivers with Top 5s (7), Top 10s (12), laps (5,809), and laps led (679). His 13.7 average finish is 8th best among drivers.

Harvick has seven Top 10s in the last nine races at this track including two wins and four Top 5s. He finished 8th and 10th at this track in 2020. The #4 car will start on the pole this weekend.

I expect Harvick to be a Top 10 and Top 5 car this weekend. He could also be a Top 3 car, but will have to battle Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing for a shot at the checkered flag.

Martin Truex Jr (+650)

Top 3 (+190)
Top 10 (-265)

Truex’s 3rd place finish at Homestead-Miami last weekend improved his spot in the standings from 14th to 9th overall. It was his first Top 5 and Top 10 finish for the year.

At Vegas, Truex has had a solid run over the last decade. During that span, he has one win, six Top 5s, and nine Top 10s. He was 20th and 4th at this track last year, but won at Vegas three races ago. His 11.0 average finish is 4th best among active drivers.

Truex will be a Top 10 car, but he needs to show some consistency on the track to feel confident about the #19 being a car we can count on as a contender for the checkered flag.

Chase Elliott (+775)

Top 3 (+235)
Top 10 (-225)

The defending Cup Series champ is currently 5th in the standings after a ho-hum 14th place result last weekend. He’s had to middle of the pack finishes over the last two races and has had some bad luck along the way.

We learned some things, and now we are looking ahead to @LVMotorSpeedway ?? pic.twitter.com/hybjpGyvyw

— Chase Elliott (@chaseelliott) March 1, 2021

Elliott is hoping his luck will change in Vegas this weekend, but I’m not sure it will. In eight starts at this track, Elliott has just two Top 5s and three Top 10s. He has a pathetic 21.5 average finish at Las Vegas which includes three DNFs.

Of the betting favorites, I would avoid Elliott the most. His ceiling this weekend is a Top 10 finish.

Denny Hamlin (+775)

Top 3 (+235)
Top 10 (-225)

Hamlin has started off the season on a strong note. Although he was 11th at Homestead last weekend, he still sits on top of the driver standings.

He also has won three stages, which is half of the stages this season so far. Hamlin’s 103 laps led is the most of the field heading into this weekend.

Unfortunately, Hamlin has never won at Vegas in his career. He was 3rd in the fall race here last year, but only has three Top 10s in the last eight races at this track.

Hamlin does have a respectable average finish at 13.4, but he’s only been a realistic threat to win one race at this track and that was last September at the South Point 400.

I see the #11 car finishing in the Top 10 this weekend and flirting with a Top 5, but I don’t see Hamlin contending for the checkered flag.

Brad Keselowski (+900)

Top 3 (+235)
Top 10 (-225)

Of the betting favorites, Keselowski has the most wins at Vegas with three. He, along with his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano, are the drivers to beat this weekend.

Keselowski has the 5th best average finish at 11.5, but has been a star at this track over the last eight years. During that 11 race span, he has three wins, seven Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and has never finished worse than 13th overall.

Keselowski finished 7th and 13th last year, which was a 10.0 average finish. Prior to that, he had three straight finishes in the Top 3.

For the season, Keselowski is 10th in the standings with only one Top 5 and one Top 10. He was 16th at Homestead-Miami last weekend even after leading 47 laps.

I see the #2 car as a Top 10 and Top 5 driver this weekend. He should be in contention for the checkered flag when it’s all said and done.

The Best Pennzoil 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Pennzoil 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and their 2021 season so far:

Driver
Wins
Top 5
Top 10
Avg Start
Avg Finish
DNF
Joey Logano
2
6
10
8.4
8.4
0
Kyle Larson
0
3
6
9.8
10.8
0
Kyle Busch
1
7
10
8.7
12.4
2

We’re speeding into race weekend! Tune in this Sunday at 3:30PM EST on FOX to see if @joeylogano can three-peat at the #Pennzoil400 ? ? ? #TheProofIsInThePennzoil pic.twitter.com/lJe1WV5jc5

— Pennzoil (@Pennzoil) March 4, 2021

Joey Logano (+900)

Top 3 (+235)
Top 10 (-225)

Logano dropped a spot in the standings from 3rd to 2nd overall after finishing 25th at Homestead-Miami last weekend. It was a big drop from his 2nd place result on the Daytona road course two weeks ago.

Yet, he has led laps in every race so far and he heads to a track where the #22 car has dominated at in recent years.

Logano has won this race for the last two years and has been in the Top 10 for this race since 2014. His worse result in the last nine years at this track was 14th last fall. He’s led laps in every Vegas race since 2014.

His 8.4 average finish is the best among drivers and he will definitely be one of the cars to beat on Sunday. I expect Logano to be a Top 10, Top 5 and Top 3 car in the Pennzoil 400.

Kyle Larson (+1000)

Top 3 (+290)
Top 10 (-180)

Larson jumped up four spots in the standings after finishing 4th last weekend. He crashed in the final laps of the Daytona road race, which is the reason why he doesn’t have three Top 10s on the year.

At Vegas, Larson has six Top 10s in his nine starts and his 10.8 average finish is the 3rd best among drivers. He was 9th in this race last year before being suspended.

Larson hasn’t missed a beat since returning to NASCAR this year and driving for Hendrick. He has value with his Top 10 odds and could be a Top 5 car as well.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

Top 3 (+375)
Top 10 (-150)

Busch sits 18th in the driver standings and fell one spot despite finishing 10th last weekend. Unfortunately, his 24.5 average finish over the first two weeks has put Busch in a big hole early in the season.

Now, he heads to his home track this Sunday where he hasn’t won at since 2009.

In the last six races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Busch has two Top 5s and four Top 10s. He was 15th and 6th at this track last year.

I see a Top 10 finish for Busch in the Pennzoil 400 and I believe his Top 10 odds provide value.

The Top Longshot to Win the Pennzoil 400

Michael McDowell (+12500)

Top 3 (+3000)
Top 10 (+375)

I can’t imagine there’s been a worse track for McDowell than Vegas. In 14 starts, he has seven DNFs and has never finished higher than 18th. He didn’t even finish in seven of his first 10 starts at this track.

Although McDowell was able to finish the last four races, his best result was 21st in the fall race last year. So, you can see why he’s such a longshot.

With that said, McDowell is the only other driver along with Harvick to have finished in the Top 10 each race this season. He won the Daytona 500, was 8th in the Daytona road race, and finished 6th last weekend.

I like his Top 10 odds and think that the #34 car can keep his streak going by sneaking into the Top 10 this weekend.

The Rest of the Field at Pennzoil 400

The following drivers are worth keeping an eye on in this weekend’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas:

Ryan Blaney (+1200) – Blaney has the second best average finish at this track at 9.7. In nine starts, he has three Top 5s and six Top 10s. He was 11th and 7th at Vegas last year and will benefit from having two of the favorites as his teammates.
Kurt Busch (+1600) – Busch won the fall race here last year and was 5th in this race in 2019. He’s also 6th in the driver standings with two Top 10s this season.
Austin Dillon (+2500) – Dillon has the 10th best average finish at 16.3, but finished 4th in this race last year. He has one Top 5 and one Top 10 this year so far.
Christopher Bell (+2800) – This is just his 3rd start after finishing 33rd and 24th last year in Vegas. He does have one win this year, but appears to be a Top 20 car at best this Sunday.
Matt DiBenedetto (+5000) – Matt is not having a good year so far, but he was runner up in both Vegas races last year and could be a surprise Top 10 driver this weekend as well.

The Best Top 5 Bet for Pennzoil 400

Keselowski is my choice for the best driver to finish in the Top 5. In 15 starts, he has seven Top 5s. In fact, he’s done that in the last 11 races at Vegas. Keselowski has three wins at this track and is one of my race favorites this weekend.

The Best Top 10 Bet for Pennzoil 400

I like Kyle Larson to finish in the Top 10 this weekend at the Pennzoil 400. In nine career starts, he has three Top 5s and six Top 10s. Larson also has two Top 10s on the season. He’s racing well for a driver that missed most of 2020.

Has Kyle Larson felt behind at all not having raced many of these tracks last season? And he describes how the Hendrick car was different than the Ganassi car at Homestead and how it impacted his race: pic.twitter.com/ox4l1ycy5L

— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) March 3, 2021

My Top 5 drivers this weekend are Keselowski, Logano, Truex, Harvick and Larson. Of these drivers, only Larson hasn’t won at this track. I don’t see him getting that first Vegas win this weekend.

I also don’t see Harvick winning either. He’s been consistently good on the year and at Vegas, but hasn’t won since 2018. In that span, Logano has won twice while both Keselowski and Truex have won once.

I don’t see Logano winning this weekend despite racing really well. I just don’t believe he’s going to win this race three years in a row.

I think the checkered flag will come down to Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski. I’m taking Truex to win this race as he showed last weekend at Homestead that he’s still one of the best drivers at the 1.5 mile tracks.

My Top 5 Drivers

Kevin Harvick
Kyle Larson
Martin Truex Jr.
Brad Keselowski
Joey Logano

Pennzoil 400 Betting Recap

Winner

Betting Value

Joey Logano (+900)
Kyle Larson (+1000)
Kyle Busch (+12000)

Longshot

Michael McDowell (+12500)

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

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