NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Odds

NASCAR-Dixie-Vodka-400-2021

On Sunday, February 28th, NASCAR heads to Homestead-Miami for the Dixie Vodka 400. This is the third race of the 2021 season and it’s already been a crazy first couple of weeks as two long shot, under the radar drivers have taken the checkered flags at Daytona.

In the Daytona 500, Michael McDowell survived the late race wrecks to take the sport’s biggest one race victory. The next week, Christopher Bell took advantage of late lap misfortunes by Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. to pass Joey Logano for the race win.

Will we see another surprise winner this weekend?

According to NASCAR betting sites, Denny Hamlin is the odds on favorite to win the race. He’s followed closely by Chase Elliott, Kevin Havick, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Larson.

Let’s put our safety gear on, strap in tightly, and fire up those engines as we make some Dixie Vodka 400 betting predictions.

Race Profile

The Homestead-Miami Speedway is a traditional quad oval racetrack with four turns at 18-20 degrees and a lap length of 1.5 miles. Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 race breaks down as follows:

Total Miles: 400.5 miles
Total Laps: 267
Stage 1: First 80 laps
Stage 2: Second 80 laps
Final Stage: Remaining 107 laps

The Dixie Vodka 400 is set to begin at 3:30 PM ET and will air live on FOX.

Will we have another first-time Cup Series winner this weekend? pic.twitter.com/LdV4LEYbfp

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) February 25, 2021

What to Watch for at Miami

With all of the excitement heading into this weekend, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on:

Can Joe Gibbs Racing win a third straight time?
Will we have another first time winner?
Will we see a race favorite win the Dixie Vodka 400?
Can Denny Hamlin win this race for the 4th time?
Will there be a last lap pass for the win?

Previous Dixie Vodka 400 Winners

The first Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami was run in 1999 and won by Tony Stewart who would also go on to win the second one as well. In total, Stewart won this race three times.

Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin are tied with Stewart for the most career Dixie Vodka 400 race wins. Hamlin is the defending champ in this event.

The following is a list of the previous winners dating back to 2003 when the track underwent the current configurations:

Bobby Labonte in 2003
Greg Biffle in 2004-2005
Matte Kenseth in 2007
Carl Edwards in 2008, 2010
Denny Hamlin in 2009, 2013, 2020
Tony Stewart in 1999, 2000, 2011
Jeff Gordon in 2012
Kevin Harvick in 2014
Kyle Busch in 2015, 2019
Jimmie Johnson in 2016
Martin Truex Jr. in 2017
Joey Logano in 2018

NASCAR Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Denny Hamlin (+500
Chase Elliott (+550)
Kevin Harvick (+700)
Martin Truex Jr (+750)
Kyle Larson (+800)
Joey Logano (+1000)
Kyle Busch (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Brad Keselowski (+1400)
Alex Bowman (+2000)
Christopher Bell(+2000)
Tyler Reddick (+2000)
William Byron (+2800)
Aric Almirola (+3300)
Darrell Wallace Jr (+4000)
Austin Dillon (+5000)
Kurt Busch (+5000)
Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
Chase Briscoe (+8000)
Cole Custer (+8000)
Erik Jones (+10000)
Ross Chastain (+10000)
Ryan Newman (+10000)
Michael McDowell (+12500)
Chris Buescher (+15000)
Daniel Suarez (+15000)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+15000)
Ryan Preece (+20000)

Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Favorites

According to most US betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the Dixie Vodka 400 on February 28th.

Driver
Wins
Top 5
Top 10
Avg Start
Avg Finish
DNF
Denny Hamlin
3
5
11
17.5
9.9
0
Chase Elliott
0
2
3
10.6
8.0
0
Kevin Harvick
1
11
17
11.6
7.4
0
Martin Truex Jr
1
6
10
11.1
10.3
2
Kyle Larson
0
3
3
16.9
13.0
1

Denny Hamlin (+500)

Top 5 (-120)
Top 10 (-385)

After two weeks of racing, Hamlin comes into this weekend’s event sitting on top of the driver standings by 12 points over Joey Logano.

Hamlin finished 5th in the Daytona 500 after leading 98 laps, which were the most of the race. He followed that result up with a 3rd place finish in the Daytona road course race last weekend.

Two Top 5s in the first two weeks signals to the field that Hamlin is in great form to start the season.

Now, Hamlin heads to Homestead where he’s tied for the most career wins in this race with three. He’s also the defending champion as he won this race last year. And, if that weren’t enough in his favor, Hamlin will also start on the pole this weekend.

In 16 starts at this track, Hamlin has three wins, five Top 5s, 11 Top 10s, and a 9.9 average finish which is the 3rd best among drivers.

In the last eight races at Homestead, Hamlin has nine Top 10s and two Top 5s which were race victories.

I like Hamlin to definitely be in the Top 10 and Top 5. I believe he will compete for the checkered flag on Sunday and is the man to beat heading into the Dixie Vodka 400.

Chase Elliott (+550)

Top 5 (-105)
Top 10 (-315)

Elliott has done just about everything right in his young career except win at Homestead. Yet, that could be changing sooner than later. Last year, Elliott finished second in this race and led 27 laps.

In his five career starts at this track, Elliott has never finished worse than 15th. Furthermore, he has two Top 5s and three Top 10s. His 8.0 average finish is the second best among active drivers.

Breaking down what went wrong for Chase Elliott during Sunday’s race at Daytona. pic.twitter.com/KjyIr51VyX

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) February 23, 2021

Elliott comes into this race sitting 5th overall. He was the runner up in the Daytona 500 and even led three laps. Unfortunately, he couldn’t beat out McDowell for the checkered flag.

Last weekend, Elliott was the race favorite at the Daytona road course and led 44 laps, which were the most on the day. Unfortunately, two late race spinouts cost the reigning Cup Series champ a shot at winning the race. He finished 21st overall.

I like Elliott to be a Top 10 car on Sunday along with finishing in the Top 5. He could be a contender for the checkered flag if he avoids late lap issues for the second straight weekend.

Kevin Harvick (+700)

Top 5 (-105)
Top 10 (-315)

It should come as no surprise that Kevin Harvick is once again sitting near the top of the driver standings. He spent most of the 2020 season leading the field.

The #4 car comes into this event in third place overall with two Top 10s over the first two weeks. Harvick finished 4th in the Daytona 500 after leading 17 laps and then 6th in the road race last weekend.

In 20 starts at this track, Harvick has one win which came in 2014 when he won the Cup Series championship. This race used to be the championship race before being moved last year to earlier in the season.

Harvick leads all drivers in Top 5s (11), Top 10s (17), laps raced (5,344), and lead lap finishes (18). His 7.4 average finish is the best among drivers.

I like Harvick’s chances this weekend. I believe he will be a Top 10 and Top 5 car along with challenging for the checkered flag.

In his last 13 races at this track, he has one win, nine Top 5s, and 12 Top 10s. No other driver has performed better in terms of consistency than the #4 car at this track over the last decade.

Martin Truex Jr (+750)

Top 5 (+105)
Top 10 (-285)

The start of the 2021 season has not been kind to Martin Truex Jr. who currently sits 14th overall in the standings. Truex was 25th in the Daytona 500 as he was caught up in a wreck.

At the Daytona road race last weekend, Truex was one of the race favorites but failed to even finish near the front of the pack as he ended up 12th overall due to a late race spinout.

This certainly is a rough start for the #19 car who was looking to get back on track in 2021 after a down year last season.

Fortunately, Homestead has been a track where Truex has raced well at. In 16 starts, he has one win, six Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s. His 10.3 average finish is 4th best among active drivers.

Over the last four races at this track, Truex has three Top 2 finishes and a 12th place result for last year. He won this race in 2017 when he captured the Cup championship. He finished runner up for this race in 2018 and 2019.

I like Truex to be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling. With the way this season has started for the #19 car, I have a hard time being confident in Truex beating out Hamlin, Harvick or Kyle Busch for the race win.

Kyle Larson (+800)

Top 5 (+115)
Top 10 (-265)

Larson’s return to the Cup Series this year has been a modest success so far. He finished 10th in the Daytona 500 and even led a lap. Last weekend, Larson overshot a turn and spun out which dropped him from a Top 5 place down to 30th in the waning laps. He sits 12th in the driver standings.

The #5 car has looked strong at times while running near the front in both races for lengthy stretches. Now, he comes to Homestead where he’s fared well at.

In seven starts, Larson has three Top 5s and three Top 10s. Prior to his 2019 race where he blew an engine and finished 40th, Larson’s previous six races at the track saw him finish 15th or better in all of them. From 2015 to 2017 he finished in the Top 5 for three straight races.

I think Larson will be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling like Truex. I don’t see Larson competing for the checkered flag.

The Best Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Value

The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Dixie Vodka 400 due to their current betting odds, their past success at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and their 2021 season so far:

Driver
Wins
Top 5
Top 10
Avg Start
Avg Finish
DNF
Kyle Busch
2
5
9
10.4
15.7
2
Joey Logano
1
4
6
12.1
13.9
1
Kurt Busch
1
4
7
12.9
18.0
2

Kyle Busch (+1000)

Top 5 (+150)
Top 10 (-225)

It appears that Busch’s dreadful 2020 campaign has rolled over in the 2021 season has he’s had a miserable first two weeks of the year.

Busch wrecked out of the Daytona 500 at the end of the race and then finished the O’Reilly Auto Parts race last weekend in 35th overall. Kyle was never a factor in either race so far. He currently sits 17th in the standings and needs to a strong run this weekend.

Homestead has been a track where Busch has done well at over the last six races. Over that span, he’s finished 6th or better in each race and won twice which includes a race win in 2019. Last year, Busch was 6th overall.

In his 16 career starts at this track, Busch has two wins, five Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 15.7 average finish.

I like Busch to be a Top 10 car, but I think there’s great value with his Top 5 odds at +150. He has a 4.3 average finish over the last six Dixie Vodka 400 races.

Joey Logano (+1000)

Top 5 (+150)
Top 10 (-225)

For the last few years, I have dubbed Joey Logano the silent assassin as he quietly flies under the radar and eventually pulls off a solid result. After two weeks, Logano sits 2nd overall in the driver standings.

That’s a strong standing considering Logano wrecked on the final lap of the Daytona 500 with his teammate Brad Keselowski. He was in contention for the race win.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano after the 2021 Daytona 500, colorized pic.twitter.com/3gUStnE8fn

— Ed Soundhead (@EdSoundhead) February 21, 2021

At Daytona’s road course last weekend, Logano was leading the race in the final laps, but finished 2nd overall due to a last lap pass from Christopher Bell. Nevertheless, Logano has led laps in both races and looks to be in good form this early in the season.

At Homestead, Logano has one win, four Top 5s, and six Top 10s in 12 career starts. He finished 27th last year, which snapped a five race streak where he was 6th or better including a win in 2018, which meant he won the Cup championship that year as well.

I like Logano to finish in the Top 10 with an outside chance at squeaking into the Top 5, which offers great value if he can pull it off.

Kurt Busch (+5000)

Top 5 (+500)
Top 10 (+150)

Like many of the top drivers, Kurt Busch was caught up in a wreck at the Daytona 500, which left him with a 22nd place result. However, he bounced back last weekend with a surprising 4th place finish in the Daytona road race.

Busch sits 8th in the driver standings and heads to Homestead-Miami where he’s had success at in the past. In 20 starts, Busch has one win, four Top 5s, and seven Top 10s. His last couple years at this track haven’t gone well, but I think that will change this weekend.

I like Busch’s value for a Top 10 result on Sunday. He’s running well this year so far and I believe that will continue into this weekend’s event.

The Top Longshot to Win the Dixie Vodka 400

Austin Dillon (+5000)

Top 5 (+500)
Top 10 (+150)

Dillon has the same odds as Kurt Busch, which means they both are contenders for the longshot of the week. However, Dillon’s only won three career races and never at this track. Yet, the #3 car is running well this season.

Dillon finished 3rd in the Daytona 500 where he led seven laps and left the race 1st in the driver standings which is based on points earned. Unfortunately, he had issues last weekend in the road race and finished 34th. But, Dillon sits 9th overall heading into Sunday’s race.

Since his first race at this track in 2014, Dillon hasn’t finished worse than 14th. He’s tallied two straight Top 10 results and has a 12.6 average finish which is the 5th best among active drivers.

I like his value for a third straight Top 10 result at this track and a second Top 10 result for the young season.

The Rest of the Field at Homestead-Miami Speedway

The following drivers are worth keeping an eye on in this weekend’s Dixie Vodka 400:

Brad Keselowski (+1400) – Keselowski sits 10th in the standings and has a 14.1 average finish at this track. He’s finished in the Top 10 in 46% of his races Homestead including four of the last five years. The #2 car is a Top 10 contender.
Christopher Bell (+2000) – Bell pulled off a stunning win last weekend at Daytona’s road course, which was the first of his career. He’s now 4th in the standings and looks to continue the momentum. Bell finished 8th in this race last year, which was his only start at this track.
Michael McDowell (+12500) – McDowell pulled of the biggest surprise of the season so far, by winning the Daytona 500 to start the year. He followed that up with an 8th place result in last weekend’s road race.
McDowell sits 6th in the driver standings and looks for a third straight Top 10 result to start the season. However, he’s only finished in the Top 10 at Homestead just once in 11 starts.
Ryan Preece (+20000) – Preece has defied all odds this season so far. He was 6th in the Daytona 500 and 9th last weekend, which has put him 7th in the driver standings. Can he pull off another surprising Top 10 result at a track where he’s never finished higher than 24th?

The Best Top 5 Bet for Homestead-Miami

You can certainly go with Denny Hamlin for this, but I am taking Kevin Harvick. He leads all drivers with 11 Top 5 results including a six race streak from 2014 to 2019 where he was in the Top 5. Last year he had car issues, but I don’t see that happening this weekend.

Let’s take a look 🔙 at our 2020 winners. Who are your picks to win this weekend? #TBT | #DixieVodka400 | #ContenderBoats250 pic.twitter.com/dd06nMMSbe

— Homestead-Miami Speedway (@HomesteadMiami) February 25, 2021

From 2008 to 2019, Harvick finished 10th or better in 12 straight races. During that span, he also had nine Top 5s.

The Best Top 10 Bet This Weekend

I really like Kyle Busch for a Top 10 finish. In the last six races at Homestead, Busch has had two wins, four Top 5s, and six Top 10s. His average finish over that span has been 5.0 and he won this race in 2019.

I see Busch being a contender for the checkered flag this weekend, so a Top 10 result seems like a no brainer. Other contenders for this section also include Hamlin, Elliott, and Harvick.

Dixie Vodka 400 Checkered Flag

My Top 5 drivers for this weekend’s event are Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano.

Of those five, I am going to eliminate Elliott and Logano from winning this race. Elliott has never won at this track and Logano won’t beat out the other three drivers for the checkered flag.

Harvick has been the most consistent in this race over the last decade, but I like the winner to come from Joe Gibbs Racing once again. I think the Dixie Vodka 500 comes down to Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin has run really well this season so far and sits on top of the standings. He won this race last year and starts on the pole this weekend. Kyle Busch won this race in 2019. Busch offers the better value, but Hamlin is the safe play. I’m going with Denny Hamlin to win this race for the 4th time in his career.

My Top 5 Drivers

Denny Hamlin
Chase Elliott
Kevin Harvick
Kyle Busch
Joey Logano 

Dixie Vodka 400 Betting Recap

Betting Value:

Kyle Busch (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1000)
Kurt Busch (+5000)

Longshot

Winner

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

View all posts by Rick Rockwell