On Saturday, April 10th, the UFC returns to ABC for an exciting event live from Las Vegas. UFC on ABC 2 features a Top 10 ranked middleweight contest between Marvin Vettori and Kevin Holland. This bout was not the originally scheduled fight.
In addition to a nine bout preliminary card, UFC on ABC 2 features a six bout main card which puts this event’s total to 15 scheduled fights as of this writing.
UFC betting sites have released their full slate of odds and props for this main card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any value, and superman punch these predictions for the win.
?? Vettori v Holland ??
The Italian Dream looking to cement his status.
Big Mouth hoping to bounce back.
We’ve got a new main event for Saturday night! pic.twitter.com/hxNy7h61cs
— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) April 5, 2021
Mike Perry vs Daniel Rodriguez
Mike Perry (+145)
Daniel Rodriguez (-165)
Over (-125)/Under (+105) 2.5 rounds
The entertaining “Platinum” Mike Perry returns to the octagon looking to get back into the win column. He’s dropped three of his last four fights including his last bout which came against Tim Means in November. He lost that fight via unanimous decision.
Perry has recently stated that this will be his last fight at welterweight. Cutting down to this weight class has been tough on Perry over the last few years. He’s talking about possibly going up to middleweight.
11 of his 14 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-5 when going the distance.
Rodriguez appeared on DWCS in July 2019 and won his fight via decision. However, he didn’t debut for the UFC until February 2020. “D-Rod” started off his tenure inside the octagon going 3-0 with wins over Tim Means, Gabriel Green, and Dwight Grant.
That streak was halted last November when he lost via unanimous decision to Nicolas Dalby. 11 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 2-2 when going the distance.
I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-125) and I think this wager offers the best value for this bout. I also see this contest going the full 15 minutes (-105).
Rodriguez has gone the distance in two of his last three fights while Perry has gone the distance four of his last five bouts. Plus, Rodriguez has never been stopped in a fight and we know how hard it is to put Perry away.
With that said, I am leaning towards Perry in this contest. I believe if he can keep this a striking battle then he will edge Rodriguez with the judges.
Mike Perry vs Daniel Rodriguez –Perry (+145)
Over 2.5 rounds (-125)
Fight goes the distance (-105)
Perry wins via decision (+485)
Mackenzie Dern vs Nina Ansaroff
Mackenzie Dern (+120)
Nina Ansaroff (-140)
Over (-165)/Under (+145) 2.5 rounds
I’m a little bit surprised that Dern is the underdog in this bout. She debuted with the UFC three years ago and started off 2-0. A decision loss to Amanda Ribas was the first blemish on her pro career.
She followed up that loss with three straight victories all coming in 2020 when she beat Hannah Cifers, Randa Markos and Virna Jandiroba. Her last bout was in December against Jandiroba and Cifers won via decision.
Six of her 10 pro wins have come via decision. She’s 4-1 when going the distance and has never been stopped in a fight.
Ansaroff first debuted for the UFC in the fall of 2014 and lost her first two fights. She then put together a four fight winning streak before losing to Tatiana Suarez via decision in June 2019. Ansaroff took time off due to having a baby.
Six of her 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. She’s 4-5 when going the distance.
I see this contest going Over 2.5 rounds (-165) and the full 15 minutes (-145). Combined, these two women have gone the distance in 14 of their 27 total bouts.
Ansaroff has gone to a decision in nine of her 16 pro fights including six of her last seven fights and four in a row. Dern has gone the distance in three of her six UFC fights including her last bout against Jandiroba.
I like Dern to win this fight. I believe she’s trending upwards in her career and has the overall skillset to control this contest. If she gets the fight to the mat then she could stop Ansaroff in her return to the octagon. I also believe that the value is with Dern’s moneyline.
Mackenzie Dern vs Nina Ansaroff –Dern (+120)
Over 2.5 rounds (-165)
Fight goes the distance (-145)
Dern wins via decision (+280)
Sam Alvey vs Julian Marquez
Sam Alvey (+165)
Julian Marquez (-190)
Over (+110)/Under (-130) 2.5 rounds
This bout was originally scheduled to be Zak Cummings versus Sam Alvey. However, Cummings withdrew from the fight and his teammate Julian Marquez agreed to fill in on nearly four weeks’ notice.
Marquez is the favorite for this contest having made his return to the octagon in February after a 31 month hiatus. He scored a 3rd round submission win over Maki Pitolo and is 6-1 in his last seven fights. The win also bumped his UFC record up to 2-1.
All eight of his wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-2 when going the distance and has never been stopped in his career.
Marquez worked hard to evolve as a fighter in those 31 months out of action. He’s more motivated than ever to get to the top of the division and believes that Alvey is standing in his way of accomplishing that dream:
“Mental game, physical game, my striking, my grappling, everything. You saw it my last fight, my mentality I had, the way to come back after pretty much losing three rounds, still going after it, going for the win. I don’t care, outside of the cage I like Sam Alvey, inside of the cage, he’s an opponent. I have to go against him and he’s one person standing in the way of me going for my dream.”
Alvey comes into this fight having gone winless in his last five UFC bouts. He’s now 10-9-1 inside the UFC and in danger of being bounced from the promotion. Alvey last competed in October 2020 and fought to a draw against Da Un Jung. That draw snapped a four fight losing streak.
Alvey is used to getting new opponents as several of his recent fights were rebooked. Yet, he also commented on how Marquez is a tougher opponent than Cummings:
“We’ve got, probably a little bit (of a) tougher opponent in Marquez. Tougher might be the wrong word. He’s just a different set of skills, he’s a different fighter. We’re adapting and we’re going to show up in tip-top shape…”
22 of his 33 pro wins have come via stoppage with 19 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 11-10-1 when going the distance in a fight.
Alvey is correct, he does have a tougher opponent in Marquez and one that he will lose to. I believe Marquez has the skillset to finish off Alvey in this matchup.
Julian Marquez (@JMarquezMMA) reveals he’s still talking to Miley Cyrus (@MileyCyrus) by DM ?? #UFC #MMAhttps://t.co/TKPDoSRON0
— bjpenndotcom (@bjpenndotcom) February 19, 2021
I don’t see this contest going Over 2.5 rounds (-130) and I definitely see it ending inside the distance (-165).
Alvey has been stopped four times in his career including three via TKO/KO. Two of his last four losses have come via TKO/KO. I see Marquez picking up the TKO/KO win in this contest. As mentioned above, six of his eight pro wins have come via TKO/KO.
The value is with Marquez winning inside the distance at +130 odds.
Sam Alvey vs Julian Marquez –Marquez (-190)
Under 2.5 rounds (-130)
Fight ends inside the distance (-165)
Marquez wins inside the distance (+130)
Marquez wins via TKO/KO (+185)
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Kyle Daukaus
Aliaskhab Khizriev (-125)
Kyle Daukaus (+105)
Over (-165)/Under (+145) 2.5 rounds
Daukaus returns to the octagon for the first time since last November when he beat Dustin Stoltzfus via decision. He’s 1-1 in the UFC after losing his debut to Brendan Allen via decision.
The loss only made him more determined to succeed in the octagon. Daukaus believes he will beat his opponent this weekend and wants to take on ranked fighters moving forward:
“I’ve written down in this book that I’m going to beat Aliaskhab Khizriev on April 10, 2021 and be 11-1 and in the UFC. I want guys with numbers next to their names and I don’t want to take anything less. I want to climb the ranks and be a potential title contender within the next year or so. Maybe at the end of this year I can fight one of the Top 10 guys, and maybe next year I can start cracking that Top 10 and getting my name in the Top 5.”
Eight of his 10 pro wins have come via submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance and has never been stopped in a fight.
Khizriev is undefeated and looking to win in his UFC debut this weekend. The Russian fighter has been successful overseas and has some buzz coming into the promotion. He won on DWCS last September via 1st round submission in just 50 seconds. That earned him a contract and this opportunity.
Nine of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-0 when going the distance.
Aliaskhab Khizriev will fight Kyle Daukaus UFC event on April 10th. (per @ILazorin) #UFC #MMA #UFCESPN pic.twitter.com/WZiMh4zRVc
— MaRCeL DoRFF ???? (@BigMarcel24) February 2, 2021
This is a tough fight to predict. Both men have solid resumes, but there are some unknowns about Khizriev coming into this weekend’s bout.
Neither fighter has been stopped in their careers. I see that trend continuing which means that this fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-165) and the full distance (-145).
Both men have solid grappling skills as well. So, whichever fighter can do more damage in the striking department should win this fight. With that said, I am leaning towards Khizriev to win as he appears to have the slight advantage in striking.
The moneylines for both fighters offer the best value in this contest.
Aliaskhab Khizriev vs Kyle Daukaus –Khizriev (-125)
Over 2.5 rounds (-165)
Fight goes the distance (-145)
Khizriev wins via decision (+180)
Arnold Allen vs Sodiq Yusuff
Arnold Allen (+120)
Sodiq Yusuff (-140)
Over (-200)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds
The co-main event is an intriguing battle within the featherweight division as the #10 ranked Arnold Allen takes on the #11 ranked Sodiq Yusuff. Additionally, both men haven’t fought since January 2020.
Allen enters as the slight underdog despite going 7-0 inside the octagon. His last fight was against Nik Lentz and he won via decision. Nine of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 7-1 when going the distance.
Allen is excited for this fight. He sees it as two hungry prospects looking to move up in the rankings. Allen also is excited that he will be fighting someone that will stand and strike, which he feels that favors him in this contest:
“It’ll be nice to fight someone who doesn’t want to take me down, and we’re going to stand – that’s going to suit me very well, rather than having to counter strike and counter wrestle. It’s going to be interesting. I think I’m going to win because of my whole fight IQ, I think I’m a bit more well-rounded, bit more versatile. I’m too fast, too technical and that’s going to be that.”
Yusuff is riding six fight win streak into this weekend’s event. He’s 4-0 inside the octagon and beat Andre Fili via decision in his last contest. Six of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage. He’s 5-0 when going the distance. Yusuff’s lone loss came via TKO/KO.
“It’s a great matchup. I understand his name isn’t as big as the rest of the guys in the division, but everybody in the division kind of knows who we are. I honestly feel like I’m going to get the finish, like that second round TKO. A lot of things are clicking for me right now, and this is probably the best that I’ve felt going into a fight, ever.”
This co-main event is going to be filled with fireworks. I disagree with Yusuff as I don’t see the bout ending inside the distance. I believe these two will put on a 15 minute thriller. Take the Over 2.5 rounds and for the fight to go the distance (-175).
As for the winner, I’m betting on Allen using my UFC betting app. He’s the more proven commodity and has the more impressive UFC resume. I believe he will edge out Yusuff with the judges. The moneylines offer the best value in this bout.
Arnold Allen vs Sodiq Yusuff –Allen (+120)
Over 2.5 rounds (-200)
Fight goes the distance (-175)
Allen wins via decision (+244)
Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland
Marvin Vettori (-320)
Kevin Holland (+260)
Over (-105)/Under (-125) 3.5 rounds
This bout was supposed to be Darren Till versus Marvin Vettori, but Till suffered a broken collarbone in training for the matchup. Kevin Holland stepped up to fill in the void. It’s still a Top 10 ranked middleweight fight, but not nearly as exciting as Till vs Vettori.
When we last saw Kevin Holland, he looked like he was having a mental breakdown in his fight against Derek Brunson which he lost via unanimous decision on March 20th.
Holland spent more time talking to Brunson and on his back than he did winning rounds. In fact, he spent more time talking to Khabib Nurmagomedov, who was sitting outside the octagon, than he did standing upright.
It really was a disappointing showing for Holland who had won five fights in a row. All five of those bouts came in 2020.
“See you April 10,” Kevin Holland says.
Kevin Holland x Marvin Vettori is signed for April 10. Five rounds. https://t.co/57JgTmVebB
— Ariel Helwani (@arielhelwani) April 1, 2021
Holland made it clear to the UFC that he would be available if Vettori or Till couldn’t compete at this show. Following Till’s injury, the UFC granted Holland’s request to return to the octagon so quickly.
17 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with 12 by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-4 when going the distance.
Vettori’s ascencsion to the top of the middleweight division has been a very slow one despite being the only middleweight to nearly beat Adesanya. They fought in April 2018 and Vettori has been demanding a rematch ever since.
Vettori has won four straight fights since that matchup with Adesanya. He last competed in December and beat Jack Hermansson via unanimous decision.
11 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of submission. He’s 5-4-1 when going the distance.
I like Vettori and I believe he’s going to win this fight. After watching Holland against Brunson, I have zero confidence in him this weekend. Vettori will set a high pace, push the action, and take Holland to the mat whenever he wants.
I believe Vettori will win this fight via decision and make a case for a title fight in the near future. The best value for this fight is the Over 3.5 rounds at -105.
Marvin Vettori vs Kevin Holland –Vettori (-320)
Over 3.5 rounds (-105)
Fight goes the distance (+140)
Vettori wins via decision (+190)
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
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