On Saturday, July 24th, the UFC returns to their Apex Center for UFC on ESPN 27 also known as UFC Vegas 32. Before we take a look at the main card lineup, including the exciting bantamweight clash between Sandhagen and Dillashaw, we must first examine the preliminary card.
Currently, there are six bouts scheduled for the preliminary card of UFC on ESPN 27 which begins at 4pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+.
However, even with just a few days until fight night, this portion of the event is still undergoing various changes which we will address below.
Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest odds for this preliminary card courtesy of the best UFC betting sites, identify any betting value, and heel hook these predictions into submission.
Recent Changes to the UFC on ESPN 27 Prelims
The following fights or fighters were set to compete at UFC on ESPN 27, but have recently been pulled or removed from the show:
Trevin Jones (13-6) vs Ronnie Lawrence (7-1)
Trevin Jones was initially set to face Tony Kelley at UFC Vegas 32, but Kelley withdrew from the fight due to undisclosed reasons.
On July 15th, it was announced that Jones was set to face Aaron Phillips who also lost his opponent Cameron Else for this event. Jones was listed as a -275 favorite over Phillips (+200).
Unfortunately, that bout didn’t come to fruition and now Trevin has a new opponent and a new fight date.
It was announced on Sunday, July 18th, that Jones and Ronnie Lawrence have agreed to fight each other at UFC on ESPN 28.
Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-5) vs. Christopher Daukaus (11-3)
This matchup is a battle of Top 10 heavyweights and the one fight I was looking forward to the most on the preliminary card. Unfortunately, due to covid, this contest has been pushed back to UFC on ESPN 28 which takes place on July 31st.
Fight pushed back until next week, Covid strikes again! Thank you for everyone for the support! 🙌🏻 pic.twitter.com/etIN1s2rVr
— Chris Daukaus (@ChrisDaukausMMA) July 19, 2021
The 10th ranked Christopher Daukaus (-200) is the betting favorite for this matchup and 3-0 inside the octagon having last competed in February and beating Alexey Oleynik via 1st round TKO. All three of his UFC bouts have ended in victory via TKO/KO.
The 7th ranked Shamil Abdurakhimov (+160) is the underdog and hasn’t competed since September 2019 when he lost via 2nd round TKO to Curtis Blaydes.
Abdurakhimov is 5-3 inside the octagon with notable wins over Walt Harris, Andrei Arlovski and Marcin Tybura.
Diana Belbita (13-6) vs. Hannah Goldy (5-1)
Diana Belbita (-105)
Hannah Goldy (-115)
Over (-285)/Under (+225) 2.5 rounds
This women’s strawweight contest is expected to open up the show.
Belbita will make her third appearance for the UFC and averages one bout per year inside the octagon. She rode a four fight win streak into the UFC in October 2018 but lost to Molly McCann via decision.
Diana followed that up with a 1st round submission loss to Liana Jojua in July 2020 and hasn’t fought since a year ago.
Great chatting with Hannah Goldy who discussed …
✅ Diana Belbita strawweight matchup #UFCVegas32
✅ Getting COVID-19 & withdrawing from last fight
✅ 2 year layoff
✅ Training with @savage_ufc
Full interview via @MMASucka https://t.co/gpceQ1Xbs8 pic.twitter.com/VPzYDDEN5X
— James Lynch (@LynchOnSports) July 14, 2021
10 of her 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. She’s 3-2 when going the distance. Four of her six losses have come via submission.
Hannah Goldy went 4-0 to start off her career which earned her a shot on DWCS in June 2019. She beat Kali Robbins via decision and scored an opportunity to step inside the octagon.
In August 2019, Goldy made her UFC debut but lost via decision to Miranda Granger. She hasn’t competed since then.
Four of her five pro wins have come via decision. Her lone loss has come via decision.
This bout is definitely going Over 2.5 rounds (-200) and the full 15 minutes (-260). Goldy hasn’t been stopped before and five of her six fights have gone to a decision.
I’m taking Gold to win this matchup, but neither fighter instills confidence so place a small wager.
UFC Bet: Hannah Goldy (-115)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-285)
Fight Goes to a Decision (-260)
Sijara Eubanks (6-6) vs. Elise Reed (4-0)
Sijara Eubanks (-325)
Elise Reed (+250)
Over (-200)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds
Reed started off her pro MMA career with a big 1st round TKO win in Bellator, but then moved on to CFFC for her next three bouts.
She last competed in May 2021 and won via 2nd round TKO. Reed’s fast start has earned her this shot with the UFC as she makes her octagon debut on Saturday.
Two of her four pro wins have come via TKO/KO. Her other two wins are via decision.
Eubanks is ranked 12th in her division and debuted with the UFC a little over three years ago. She started of 2-0 then quickly dropped to 2-2 in the promotion.
Eubanks has fought four times in the last 14 months and has gone 2-2 over that stretch which gives her a 4-4 record inside the octagon.
Her last bout came in December 2020 where she lost to Pannie Kianzad via decision. Two of her six pro wins have come via TKO/KO. She’s 4-6 when going the distance and has never been stopped in a pro bout.
Eubanks has gone the distance in nine straight bouts, so it’s safe to say this one will also go over 2.5 rounds (-200) and the full 15 minutes (-160). Further hammering home this point is the fact that neither woman has been stopped in her MMA career.
As for the winner, take Eubanks to win via unanimous decision. She has faced tougher competition and also has the overall edge in fighting experience.
UFC Bet: Sijara Eubanks (-325)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200)
Fight Goes to a Decision (-160)
Andre Ewell (17-7) vs. Julio Arce (16-4)
Andre Ewell (+150)
Julio Arce (-190)
Over (-225)/Under (+180) 2.5 rounds
Ewell rode a four fight win streak straight to the octagon where he made his debut in September 2018 and defeated Renan Barao via split decision. Since then, he’s alternated between wins and losses but still remains above .500 in the octagon with a 4-3 record.
Andre’s last bout came in February 2021 where he lost via decision two Chris Gutierrez. Four of his seven pro losses have come via stoppage. Overall, 11 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 6-3 when going the distance.
Spoke with Andre Ewell (@daii24_dre) about his roots, loyalty he displays to his team, and future plans in the UFC.
Check out the full story for @_tvsports
Watch Ewell take on Julio Arce this Saturday at #UFCVegas32 on @ESPNPlus https://t.co/eO88lfkj46
— Connor Coyle (@ConnorJCoyle) July 20, 2021
Ewell made the following comments about his upcoming opponent:
“It should be a bigger test for me. He’s coming from 145… If he wants to stand then I feel like my hands are better. My standup and striking is at a different class, But everyone knows when they fight me they become a wrestler and I know that since he’s a well rounded guy, he should be taking shots, a lot of them. When it comes to that situation I just have to show that my ground game is better.”
Arce rode a four fight win streak into an appearance on DWCS in August 2017 and won that fight via 2nd round TKO. He made his octagon debut in January 2018 where he beat Dan Ige via decision and then followed that up with a 3rd round submission victory over Daniel Teymur.
Things were looking good for Julio, but then he hit a rough patch where he’s dropped two of his last three fights and is now 3-2 in the UFC.
He last fought in November 2019 and lost to Hakeem Dawodu via split decision. Both of his octagon defeats have come via split decision.
Nine of Arce’s 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 7-3 when going the distance. His lone stoppage loss was a submission defeat.
Although I do believe there’s a small chance that Arce could pull off the submission victory, I like for this contest to go Over 2.5 rounds (-225) and the full 15 minutes (-170).
Five of Arce’s last nine contests have gone the distance. Ewell has gone the distance in three straight bouts.
I think Arce is the better overall fighter in this matchup and I don’t see there being an issue with rust. Look for Arce to cruise to a unanimous decision victory due to keeping the fight on the mat as much as possible.
As of now, there’s no betting value in this contest.
UFC Bet: Julio Arce (-190)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-225)
Fight Goes to a Decision (-170)
Adrian Yanez (13-3) vs. Randy Costa (6-1)
Adrian Yanez (-200)
Randy Costa (+160)
Over (-140)/Under (+110) 1.5 rounds
This bantamweight contest could be a contender for a bonus as we have two prolific strikers who have combined to knockout 14 opponents.
Costa comes in as the sizable underdog having gone 2-1 inside the octagon. He lost his debut via 2nd round submission in April 2019 to Brandon Michael Davis after going 4-0 in Cage Titans FC.
Costa followed that up with two straight impressive performances as he scored a 1st round TKO over Boston Salmon in October 2019 and then knocked out Journey Newson in 41 seconds roughly 10 months ago.
All six of his pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s never gone the distance in a pro fight.
Yanez enters this weekend’s matchup on a six fight winning streak. He appeared on DWCS in August 2020 and won via 1st round TKO in just 39 seconds.
Adrian then made his UFC debut in October 2020 where he defeated Victor Rodriguez via 1st round KO in under three minutes. Yanez’s last bout came in March 2021 where he beat Gustavo Lopez via 3rd round KO and improved his octagon record to 2-0.
10 of his 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-3 when going the distance.
Yanez shared his thoughts on Costa and the upcoming battle:
“Randy Costa poses a lot of problems. He’s fast, he’s explosive. He’s a little bit awkward. He’s one of the only guys who starts a combination with a kick and then leaves it off with a kick. He’s very awkward in that sense, but he’s super aggressive, and I like that… I want to push myself and see what else I can bring. Randy Costa is going to bring that dog out of me and make me get into that deep place.”
I don’t see this bout going the full 15 minutes (-205) as someone is going to get stopped. However, I do believe they can go Over 1.5 rounds (-140), which offers the best betting value for this explosive matchup.
During his six fight winning streak, Yanez has gone the distance just one time. As mentioned above, Costa has never seen the scorecards in his seven pro fights.
As for the winner, I give the edge to Yanez but I do believe that Costa is a live dog in this matchup and worthy of a small flier.
UFC Bet: Adrian Yanez (-200)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-140)
Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-205)
Ian Heinisch (14-4) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (9-3)
Ian Heinisch (-150)
Nassourdine Imavov (+120)
Over (-205)/Under (+170) 2.5 rounds
Imavov enters this weekend’s bout having gone 6-1 in his last seven fights. After his 5th win in a row, he earned an opportunity with the UFC where he debuted in October 2020 and beat Jordan Williams via decision.
After over assessing Kelvin Gastelum, Ian Heinisch solely focused on being 'best version of himself' vs. Nassourdine Imavov #UFCVegas32 (via @MMAjunkieGeorge, @thegoze) https://t.co/4gCQpAwN2F
— MMA Junkie (@MMAjunkie) July 17, 2021
His second trip inside the octagon came five months ago and he came out on the wrong side of a majority decision against Phil Hawes.
Seven of his nine pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. He’s 2-2 when going the distance and has one submission defeat on his resume.
Ian Heinisch has been with the UFC since the fall of 2018 after earning a contract with an impressive 1st round KO over Justin Sumter on DWCS.
He started off his UFC tenure going 2-0 before dropping two in a row via decision to Brunson and Akhmedov. Ian ended that losing streak with an emphatic 1st round TKO win over Gerald Meerschaert in June 2020.
His last fight came in February 2021 against one of the top ranked middleweights in Kelvin Gastelum. Heinisch lost via unanimous decision.
Seven of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 7-3 when going the distance.
Heinisch made the following comments about his mindset heading into this weekend’s event:
“These guys have been able to push me and make me the best version of me, and I believe if I just go in there and fight him and not fight me and him – because that’s kind of what I was doing before. I felt like I was not just fighting my opponent, I was fighting myself, as well. I just want to fight my opponent this fight. I want to be the best me. I want to have an active year. But I’ve got a big challenge in front of me, and I look to destroy this man on the 24th.”
I believe this bout will go Over 2.5 rounds and the full 15 minutes (-170). I also believe it could end up being one of the best fights on the preliminary card.
Heinisch has gone the distance in 10 of his 18 pro fights including five of his six UFC bouts. Imavov has gone the distance in both of his UFC contests.
I still think that Heinisch can be a Top 10 middleweight and I’m taking him to win this bout via split decision. If Heinisch’s odds drop by time fight night arrives then they could offer solid betting value for this event.
UFC Bet: Ian Heinisch (-150)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-205)
Fight Goes the Distance (-170)
Punahele Soriano (8-0) vs. Brendan Allen (16-4)
Punahele Soriano (-110)
Brendan Allen (-110)
Over (-135)/Under (+105) 1.5 rounds
This middleweight fight is the featured bout of the preliminary card and it also has the closest betting odds for the entire UFC on ESPN 27 event.
Brendan Allen is the more experienced fighter in the sport and the octagon. After a run with the LFA, he earned a shot on DWCS in July 2019 where he beat Aaron Jeffery via 1st round submission.
Allen made his UFC debut in October of that year and scored a 2nd round submission over Tom Breese. He would start of his UFC tenure 3-0 before losing to Sean Strickland via 2nd round TKO.
“All In” bounced back from that loss with a 1st round submission win over Karl Roberson in April. 14 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of submission. He’s 2-2 when going the distance.
Soriano started off his career going 5-0 before landing an appearance on DWCS in June 2018 where he beat Jamie Pickett via unanimous decision.
That win landed him an octagon debut in December 2019 where he beat Oska Piechota via 1st round KO. Punahele would follow that win up with another 1st round TKO victory this time over Dusko Todorovic in January 2021.
Seven of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going the distance.
Soriano made the following comments about his upcoming fight against Allen:
“He might have been fighting longer than me — he’s a great fighter and he’s good everywhere; he can do it all — but I’m a good fighter as well and I plan to be better than him everywhere. All that matters is that one day. The day of the fight. I’m not afraid to get tired. I’m not afraid to get in there and give it my all. I’m not afraid to die out there. I’m going out there to win and that’s it.”
I see this bout going Over 1.5 rounds (-135), but I do believe it will end inside the full 15 minutes (NA). Combined, these guys have gone the distance in five of their 28 total fights.
As for the winner, I like Soriano by way of TKO/KO. He has a 63% knockout rate in his eight pro fights. Furthermore, Allen does have two stoppage losses including a TKO/KO defeat to Strickland last November.
Sean proved that a crisp striking arsenal cand put away Allen in a fight. I see Soriano doing something similar provided that he doesn’t make any silly mistakes.
There’s plenty of betting value in this matchup. For starters, you can go with each fighter’s moneyline to capitalize on the value. If you are having a hard time choosing which fighter you think will win then check out the Over 1.5 rounds option at -135 odds.
UFC Bet: Punahele Soriano (-110)
Over 1.5 Rounds (-135)
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